The ageing prisoner population: demographic shifts in Australia and implications for the economic and social costs of health care.

Purpose: The Australian prisoner population has experienced a dramatic increase in the number of older inmates over the past decade, consistent with the greying of the prisoner population that is being observed worldwide. Reviews suggest the need for further evidence and practice outside of the USA. This paper aims to review and discuss the cost and social implications of the rising health-care needs of this population in Australia.

Design/methodology/approach: A review of international research and policies is presented, as well as the results of basic economic modelling relating to the expected rise in health-care costs of the ageing prisoner population in Australia.

Findings: Taking into consideration the continued rise in incarceration rates, the calculations show that the health costs of prisoners could increase by anywhere between 17% and 90% depending on whether the increase of older prisoners continues as it has in the past decade. These trends are likely to continue over the next decade and will result in higher health costs of prisons under a number of different imprisonment scenarios. Policy responses in Australia have been slow so far, with most initiatives being undertaken in the USA with promising results.

Practical implications: The authors suggest that in the absence of a coordinated policy response, covering a range of interventions, costs will continue to increase, particularly as this population continues to age more rapidly than the general population due to an accumulation of risk factors. Well-conceived interventions would be a worthwhile investment from both financial and social perspectives.

Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first commentary to acknowledge this rising public health issue and to both review and model its implications for the future.