The characteristics of Xi Jinping’s policy-making on Taiwan affairs: the conflict between institutionalization and centralization

ABSTRACT This study focuses on the characteristics and institutions of the Xi Jinping regime’s policy-making on Taiwan affairs and compares them to those of the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao regimes. The study examines how factors such as changes in leadership, the domestic and international environment, and Cross-Strait relations have affected the policy-making processes and their mutual relations. The following three points are made. First, the operation of the People Republic of China’s (PRC) policy-making on Taiwan affairs strongly reflects the leader’s personality and domestic political situation at the time. Second, on the other hand, the process of the PRC’s policy-making on Taiwan affairs is not only influenced by internal factors such as the personality of the leader and the internal political situation but also by the current status of the Cross-Strait relations and internal politics in Taiwan at the time. Third, since the Hu Jintao regime, the role of local governments in the PRC’s policy toward Taiwan has increased, and the role of the local Taiwan affairs policy-making system has been polarized under Xi Jinping’s rule. Considering these trends, the situation emerges that Xi Jinping’s authority over the CCP’s policy-making on Taiwan affairs is becoming more vital than ever. With the official channels of negotiation with Taiwan closed and the means available for “promoting reunification” limited, Xi Jinping is using the centralized policy-making system to develop policies that require a higher level of leadership than Hu Jintao’s policies toward Taiwan.