预测第一次跌倒:验证长期护理中的新算法

IF 0.3 Q4 REHABILITATION

PHYSICAL & OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY IN GERIATRICS Pub Date : 2021-07-10 DOI:10.1080/02703181.2021.1942391

A. Kuspinar, J. Hirdes, K. Berg, C. McArthur

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要目的确定1stWall算法在加拿大四个省的长期护理（LTC）居民中的预测有效性。方法这项回顾性队列研究包括2006-2017年间入住LTC的所有患者，在过去30年中没有跌倒史天。结果是发生跌倒，并进行逻辑回归分析以评估预测有效性。结果共有199997名LTC居民接受了研究（71%的人年龄在80岁以上）年龄，66%为女性，17%有严重认知障碍）。在总样本中，第二、第三、第四和第五风险类别的客户跌倒的几率分别是第一类别的1.15、1.58、2.66和3.76倍。各省也出现了类似的趋势。结论1stFall用于预测近期无跌倒史的个人首次跌倒事件的风险。1stFall确定了有首次跌倒风险的LTC居民，支持其在日常护理中的使用。

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Predicting First Time Falls: Validating a Novel Algorithm in Long Term Care

Abstract Aim To determine the predictive validity of the 1stFall algorithm in long-term care (LTC) residents across four Canadian provinces. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all clients admitted to LTC between 2006-2017 with no history of falls in the past 30 days. The outcome was occurrence of a fall and logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictive validity. Results A total of 199,997 LTC residents were studied (71% were >80 years old, 66% women, and 17% had severe cognitive impairment). For the total sample, clients in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th risk categories had 1.15, 1.58, 2.66, and 3.76 times greater odds of falling than the 1st category, respectively. Similar trends were observed across provinces. Conclusions 1stFall was developed to predict the risk of a first-time fall event in individuals with no history of a recent fall. 1stFall identified LTC residents at risk of a first-time fall, supporting its use in routine care.

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来源期刊

PHYSICAL & OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY IN GERIATRICS REHABILITATION-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： This comprehensive journal is recognized for its useful balance of research and clinical practice articles. For more than twenty five years Physical & Occupational Therapy in Geriatrics has functioned as a forum for allied health professionals as well as others with a focus on rehabilitation of the geriatric client to share information, clinical experience, research, and therapeutic practice. Each issue focuses on current practice and emerging issues in the care of the older client, including rehabilitation and long-term care in institutional and community settings, and innovative programming; the entire range of problems experienced by the elderly; and the current skills needed for working with older clients.