Great power rivalry and the agency of secondary states: a study based on China’s relations with Southeast Asian countries

In recent years, many observers perceive ascendant Chinese influence in Southeast Asia. Existing research attributes China’s recent advances in the region to Beijing’s successful implementation of a dual strategy of coercion and inducement or Washington’s lack of commitments to the region. In a departure from the literature, this article emphasizes the agency of Southeast Asian states. It argues that great power competition empowers the secondary states by reducing their vulnerability, increasing available resources, and lending credibility to their threat of exists. As a result, domestic agenda plays a predominant role in determining a secondary state’s foreign policy orientation. To illustrate this proposition, the changing dynamics of China’s relations with Myanmar and the Philippines are examined closely. This article demonstrates that although the two states had realigned away from China since 2010–11, new agendas that emerged from their domestic politics in late 2016 tipped the balance in favor of China.