Improved Alkali–Silica Reaction Forecast in Concrete Infrastructures through Stochastic Climate Change Impact Analysis

The assessment of concrete infrastructures’ functionality during natural hazards is fundamental in evaluating their performance and emergency response. In this work, the alkali–silica reaction (ASR) in concrete is evaluated under the climate change impact. The ASR is greatly influenced by the weather parameters, such as temperature and humidity. Climate change has led the quickening of global warming and has caused extreme weather events in recent years. These events can create anomalies in weather and thus convey potential threats to the concrete infrastructures affected by the ASR. Capturing these extreme events is the key prerequisite for the precise quantification of the ASR chemophysics. This work develops a novel stochastic approach to understand the influence of stochastic temperature and humidity on ASR expansion. To assess the stochastic weather impacts on concrete, a physics-informed domain is developed by capturing the variably saturated porous medium of concrete. This is an effort to analyze ASR kinetics that integrates chemo-physical damage under extreme weather events. Results elucidate that the ASR-affected concrete would experience 83.33% more damage in 10 years than from seasonal change due to the stochastic weather impacts from climate change. This improved predictive model will guide the durable infrastructure materials design practices and enhance the resiliency of concrete infrastructures.