用机器学习方法研究德国战略文化

IF 4 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI:10.1080/13523260.2021.1992150

Jonathan Tappe, Fredrik Doeser

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要本文将监督机器学习引入德国战略文化研究，分析了德国战略文化在1990年至2017年间的变化以及战略文化对德国军事参与的影响。与以往对战略文化的定性研究相比，基于对一套非常广泛的安全政策文件的人工编码，监督机器学习可以在很长一段时间内对战略文化及其影响产生可衡量的实证见解。文章表明，冷战后，德国的战略文化发生了缓慢而非线性的变化，战略文化在控制混杂变量和时间顺序时，对德国的军事参与产生了可衡量的影响。本文论证了机器学习对未来战略文化研究的分析价值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A machine learning approach to the study of German strategic culture

ABSTRACT This article introduces supervised machine learning to the study of German strategic culture, analyzing both how German strategic culture has changed and the impact of strategic culture on Germany's military engagement between 1990 and 2017. In contrast with previous qualitative research on strategic culture, supervised machine learning can yield measurable and empirical insights into strategic culture and its effects at any given point in time over a very long period, based on the reproduction of human coding of a very extensive set of security policy documents. The article shows that German strategic culture has changed slowly and in a nonlinear way after the Cold War, and that strategic culture, when controlling for confounding variables and the temporal order, has a measurable impact on Germany's military engagement. The article demonstrates the analytical value of machine learning for future studies of strategic culture.

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来源期刊

Contemporary Security Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

14.60

自引率

6.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： One of the oldest peer-reviewed journals in international conflict and security, Contemporary Security Policy promotes theoretically-based research on policy problems of armed conflict, intervention and conflict resolution. Since it first appeared in 1980, CSP has established its unique place as a meeting ground for research at the nexus of theory and policy. Spanning the gap between academic and policy approaches, CSP offers policy analysts a place to pursue fundamental issues, and academic writers a venue for addressing policy. Major fields of concern include: War and armed conflict Peacekeeping Conflict resolution Arms control and disarmament Defense policy Strategic culture International institutions. CSP is committed to a broad range of intellectual perspectives. Articles promote new analytical approaches, iconoclastic interpretations and previously overlooked perspectives. Its pages encourage novel contributions and outlooks, not particular methodologies or policy goals. Its geographical scope is worldwide and includes security challenges in Europe, Africa, the Middle-East and Asia. Authors are encouraged to examine established priorities in innovative ways and to apply traditional methods to new problems.