危险水文气象现象对白俄罗斯社会经济系统影响的强度评估

Yulia A. Hledko, Maria V. Medvedko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文致力于研究危险水文气象现象对白俄罗斯人口和经济的影响问题。这些指标确定了水文气象因素的影响强度,并考虑到了该地区的社会经济发展水平。根据白俄罗斯国家水文气象观测网络,作者分析了2008-2010年期间危险的水文气象现象。采用统计学方法和映射法。作者在对危险水文气象现象对白俄罗斯社会经济系统的定量分析的基础上,评估了危险水文气象事件的影响强度。关于人口、行政区面积和各地区GRP的官方数据是白俄罗斯共和国国家统计委员会的初步数据。本文提出了一种适用的方法,利用地理信息技术和信息电子数据库,在地方、中层(地区)和宏观(国家)的背景下,多尺度研究危险水文气象现象对经济和人口的影响。研究结果表明,白俄罗斯各行政区对危险天气表现的脆弱性不同,因此,确定了白俄罗斯最脆弱的地区,水文气象服务对这些地区尤为重要。从危险水文气象现象对社会经济系统影响的强度来看,最不利的是明斯克地区。结果表明,人口密度越高,危险水文气象现象发生频率越高,对人口可能产生的影响强度就越高。因此,GRP越高,预计白俄罗斯特定地区的经济损失就越大。因此,在玻璃钢含量高的地区,应首先采取必要的保护措施,以减少危险水文气象现象影响的后果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of the intensity of the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the socio-economic system of Belarus
The article is devoted to the study of the problem of the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the population and economy of the Belarus. The indicators determine the intensity of the impact of hydrometeorological factors and take into account the level of socio-economic development of the region. The authors analysed dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the period 2008–2020 according to the state network of hydrometeorological observations of Belarus. Statistical method and mapping method were used. The authors assessed the intensity of the impact of the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the basis of a quantitative analysis of the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the socio-economic system of Belarus. Official data on population, area of administrative districts and GRP of regions are the initial data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. The paper proposes an adapted methodology for a multi-scale study of the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the economy and population in the context of the local level, mesolevel (region) and macrolevel (country) using geoinformation technologies and information electronic database. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the administrative regions of Belarus have unequal vulnerability to dangerous weather manifestations, therefore, the most vulnerable regions of Belarus were identified, for which hydrometeorological services are of particular importance. From the point of view of the intensity of the impact of the hazardous hydrometeorological phenomen on the socio-economic system, the most unfavorable is Minsk Region. The results showed that the higher the population density and the greater the frequency of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, the higher the intensity of the possible impact on the population. Accordingly, the higher the GRP, the more significant economic losses can be expected in a particular region of Belarus. Therefore, it is in areas with high GRP that the necessary protective measures should be taken in the first place in order to reduce the consequences of the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena.
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