Unraveling the environmental impact of current and future food waste and its management in Chinese provinces

Major environmental and climate changes are driven by changes in socioeconomic development. The problem of food waste, its unsustainable management, and associated environmental consequences are becoming great concerns due to the rapid socioeconomic development in many Chinese provinces. This study assessed the current and future status of food waste and its management, and the associated environmental impact in all Chinese provinces from life cycle perspective. Based on result, food waste in China was estimated as 61.37 Mt in 2020 and could be as high as 100.95–139.82 Mt by 2040, under various socioeconomic pathways. Average per capita food waste has increased by 29.67% from 2016 and Tianjin was found to have the highest per capita food waste. Correspondingly, GHG emission of food waste in China was estimated as 149.25 Mt CO₂eq in 2020, and is largely influence by the varieties of food wasted in each province. The environmental burden of food waste is projected to increase by 70%–148% under different socioeconomic development pathways. Anaerobic digestion demands freshwater and may pose challenges for Chinese provinces facing water scarcity. Diverting food waste to anaerobic digestion can reduce GHG emissions of food waste by $\sim$74% by 2040. China’s transition to sustainable waste management may be impeded and unsustainable economic-wise if many Chinese provinces continue to build on their current food waste management trend. These findings could be pivotal in setting food waste reduction goals at provincial level and devising strategies to ensure active involvement of community in food waste reduction programs.