油价冲击对通货膨胀的影响：不对称重要吗？

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Acta Oeconomica Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI:10.1556/032.2022.00022

Taner Turan, Hüseyin Alperen Özer

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用协整方法和增广菲利普斯曲线框架，考察了1994年至2018年间全球油价变化对中东欧五国通货膨胀率的影响。我们的研究表明捷克、波兰和斯洛伐克存在协整。我们发现，从长期来看，波兰的油价变化与通货膨胀率之间存在正相关关系。此外，从长远来看，油价的变化似乎会影响捷克、匈牙利和波兰的通胀率。在非线性模型框架中，在捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛文尼亚发现了协整。我们的研究结果表明，石油价格的变化对捷克、匈牙利和波兰的长期通货膨胀率和所有国家的短期通货膨胀率都有显著影响。更重要的是，我们证明了短期和长期不对称在解释通货膨胀率的动态方面发挥了重要作用。

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The impact of oil price shocks on inflation: Do asymmetries matter?

Using cointegration approach and Augmented Phillips Curve framework, this study examines the effects of changes in the global oil prices on the inflation rate for five CEE countries between 1994 and 2018. Our research indicates the existence of cointegration for Czechia, Poland and Slovakia. We find a positive relationship between changes of oil prices and the inflation rate in Poland in the long run. Additionally, it seems that the changes in oil prices impact the inflation rate in the long run for Czechia, Hungary and Poland. In a non-linear model framework cointegration is found in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Our findings suggest that changes in oil prices significantly affect the inflation rate in Czechia, Hungary and Poland in the long-run and in all countries in the short-run. More importantly, we demonstrate that the short- and long-run asymmetries play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of the inflation rate.

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来源期刊

Acta Oeconomica ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Acta Oeconomica publishes articles on Eastern European and Hungarian economic transition, theoretical and general issues of the transition process, economic policy, econometrics and mathematical economics. Space is also devoted to international economics, European integration, labour economics, industrial organisation, finance and business economics.Publishes book reviews and advertisements.