信息验证先验:贝叶斯更新及其应用的一个定理

IF 8.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2020-05-12 DOI:10.1257/aeri.20200284

Navin Kartik, F. Lee, Wing Suen

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引用次数: 11

摘要

我们开发了具有异质先验的贝叶斯预期后验的结果，称为信息验证先验(IVP)。在熟悉的排序要求下，Anne期望(Blackwell)提供更多信息的实验使Bob的后验均值更接近Anne的先验均值。我们将结果应用于信息不对称博弈的两种情况:自愿测试或认证，以及代价高昂的信号或伪造。IVP可用于确定代理的行为如何响应额外的外源性或内源性信息。我们讨论经济影响。(凝胶c11, d82, d84)

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Information Validates the Prior: A Theorem on Bayesian Updating and Applications

We develop a result on expected posteriors for Bayesians with heterogenous priors, dubbed information validates the prior (IVP). Under familiar ordering requirements, Anne expects a (Blackwell) more informative experiment to bring Bob’s posterior mean closer to Anne’s prior mean. We apply the result in two contexts of games of asymmetric information: voluntary testing or certification, and costly signaling or falsification. IVP can be used to determine how an agent’s behavior responds to additional exogenous or endogenous information. We discuss economic implications. (JEL C11, D82, D84)

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American Economic Review-Insights ECONOMICS-

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期刊介绍： The journal American Economic Review: Insights (AER: Insights) is a publication that caters to a wide audience interested in economics. It shares the same standards of quality and significance as the American Economic Review (AER) but focuses specifically on papers that offer important insights communicated concisely. AER: Insights releases four issues annually, covering a diverse range of topics in economics.