Nemunas河三角洲发生严重洪灾

Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI:10.5200/BALTICA.2018.31.09
Gintaras Valiuškevičius, E. Stonevičius, G. Stankunavicius, Janina Brastovickytė-Stankevič
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引用次数: 5

摘要

由于地形高程和河海相互作用的微小变化,河流三角洲地区通常最容易发生洪水。在许多地区,洪水频率增加和高水位事件持续时间延长的趋势很明显。在这项研究中,我们分析了立陶宛Nemunas三角洲地区最极端(严重)的洪水事件。该研究的重点是1926-2016年洪水的成因及其变化。通过分析具体的案例研究,并将其与其他研究人员的相关研究进行比较,我们提出了对洪水参数变异性的原始解释。本研究的目的是证明洪水事件的分析必须建立在对单个洪水驱动因素的识别的基础上。这对于位于北欧平原的河流的下游和三角洲地区来说尤其如此。从历史上看,严重的积雪融化似乎是该地区严重洪水的主要原因。然而,本研究的结果表明,这种情况在过去30年里发生了迅速的变化,即使整个流域的雪水当量相对较低,也会有大片地区被淹没。
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Severe floods in Nemunas River Delta
The river delta regions are usually most vulnerable to flooding due to small changes in terrain elevation and river – sea interaction. The trends of increased frequency of flooding and an increased duration of the high water events are evident in many regions. In this study, we analyse the most extreme (severe) flood events in the Nemunas Delta region of Lithuania. The study focuses on the causes of floods and their changes over 1926–2016. Analysing specific case studies and comparing them with related studies of other researchers, we present an original interpretation of the variability of flood parameters. The aim of the study is to demonstrate that the analysis of flood events must be based on the identification of the drivers of individual floods. This is especially true for the lower reaches and the delta regions of rivers situated within the North European Plain. Historically, an intense melting of snow appeared to be the main cause of severe flooding in this region. The results of this study, however, show that the situation has rapidly changed over the last 30 years and large areas can be flooded even if the snow water equivalent over the whole basin is relatively low.
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