The sustainability of social care in Slovakia: Modelling the existing network of residential social facilities for future senior populations

Abstract The possible availability of residential long-term care for seniors in the regions of Slovakia in the period to 2040 is evaluated in this contribution. The study identifies risk in the availability of residential care concerning the future development of the senior population. To highlight the potential risk for regions, three model projections are used. A factor analysis with two-by-two classifications was employed to identify the risk in the regions in terms of the availability of residential care. Due to the expanding senior population in Slovakia, maintaining the current capacity of residential facilities would significantly deteriorate the availability of social services. If the current ratio of residential care capacity to the size of the senior population is maintained, the number of beds will have to increase by 56% by 2040. Demographic ageing is a current challenge for public policy and requires searching for solutions to ensure the quality of social care for the elderly in every society. Our research shows that the risk in the regions of Slovakia varies depending on the existing capacity of residential facilities and the forecasted senior population.