不吉利的数字13?操纵证据容易被窥探

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI:10.1111/insr.12488

Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle

{"title":"不吉利的数字13?操纵证据容易被窥探","authors":"Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle","doi":"10.1111/insr.12488","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/insr.12488","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping\",\"authors\":\"Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/insr.12488\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/insr.12488\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12488\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12488","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

摘要

最近，有问题的研究实践在科学界内外引起了相当大的兴趣。我们将涉及影响后续统计推断的秘密数据窥探的此类做法纳入术语MESSing(操纵受窥探的证据)，并使用经验和简单的理论示例讨论，说明和量化几种形式的MESSing可能产生的戏剧性影响。这个实证例子使用了最受欢迎的德国彩票中的数字，这些数字似乎表明13是一个不吉利的数字。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping

查看原文本刊更多论文

Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping

Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.