不吉利的数字13?操纵证据容易被窥探

IF 1.7 3区数学 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

International Statistical Review Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI:10.1111/insr.12488

Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle

{"title":"不吉利的数字13?操纵证据容易被窥探","authors":"Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle","doi":"10.1111/insr.12488","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.</p>","PeriodicalId":14479,"journal":{"name":"International Statistical Review","volume":"90 2","pages":"397-410"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/insr.12488","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping\",\"authors\":\"Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/insr.12488\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14479,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Statistical Review\",\"volume\":\"90 2\",\"pages\":\"397-410\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/insr.12488\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Statistical Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12488\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Statistical Review","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12488","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

摘要

最近，有问题的研究实践在科学界内外引起了相当大的兴趣。我们将涉及影响后续统计推断的秘密数据窥探的此类做法纳入术语MESSing(操纵受窥探的证据)，并使用经验和简单的理论示例讨论，说明和量化几种形式的MESSing可能产生的戏剧性影响。这个实证例子使用了最受欢迎的德国彩票中的数字，这些数字似乎表明13是一个不吉利的数字。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping

查看原文本刊更多论文

Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping

Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

International Statistical Review 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

5.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： International Statistical Review is the flagship journal of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and of its family of Associations. It publishes papers of broad and general interest in statistics and probability. The term Review is to be interpreted broadly. The types of papers that are suitable for publication include (but are not limited to) the following: reviews/surveys of significant developments in theory, methodology, statistical computing and graphics, statistical education, and application areas; tutorials on important topics; expository papers on emerging areas of research or application; papers describing new developments and/or challenges in relevant areas; papers addressing foundational issues; papers on the history of statistics and probability; white papers on topics of importance to the profession or society; and historical assessment of seminal papers in the field and their impact.