未来年龄结构的变化和不同的移民场景

IF 0.4 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY
Víctor M. García-Guerrero, Claudia Masferrer, Silvia E. Giorguli-Saucedo
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们分析了北美(NA)和中美洲北三角(NTCA,即危地马拉、洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多)六个国家的移民和人口变化。它们共同构成了一个长期的南北移民流,美国和加拿大是墨西哥和NTCA的主要目的地。分析国际移民在原籍国和目的地国的人口影响的研究有限。为了填补这一空白,并解释这六个国家最近移民趋势和人口动态变化的影响,我们研究了与不同移民情景相关的年龄结构未来变化之间的相互关系。我们使用《2017年联合国世界人口展望》的数据,在两种前瞻性情景下比较了主要人口指数和年龄结构指标:有移民和无移民。当前和预测的人口动态表明,NA-NTCA地区的生育率趋同,低于更替水平,预期寿命延长,总体老龄化进程加快。未来的移民可能会减缓加拿大和美国的老龄化进程,在墨西哥产生较小影响,在萨尔瓦多加快老龄化进程。考虑到我们研究的主要派遣国的人口规模和年轻群体的减少,从墨西哥和NTCA到美国的国际移民不太可能达到21世纪前十年的历史峰值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Future Changes in Age Structure and Different Migration Scenarios
We analyze migration and demographic changes among the six countries of North America (NA) and the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA, i.e. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador). Together, they comprise a long-standing South-North migration stream, with the United States (US) and Canada being the main destinations for Mexico and the NTCA. Studies that analyze the demographic effects of international migration in origin and destination countries have been limited. In order to fill this gap and explain the implications of recent changes in migration trends and demographic dynamics of the six countries, we study the interrelationship between future changes in the age structure associated with different migration scenarios. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 to compare the main demographic indexes and age structure indicators under two prospective scenarios: with and without migration. Current and projected population dynamics suggest convergence in fertility below replacement levels, higher life expectancy, and an overall aging process in the NA-NTCA region. Future migration may slow down the aging process in Canada and the US, have a small effect in Mexico, and speed it up in El Salvador. Taking both the size of the populations and the decrease in young age groups for the main sending countries we have studied, it is unlikely that international migration to the US from Mexico and the NTCA will reach the historic peak observed during the first decade of the 21st century.
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自引率
25.00%
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