2019冠状病毒病大流行造成的劳动力损失经济成本

IF 3 Q1 ECONOMICS
Ondřej Bednář, B. Kadeřábková
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在最近大流行的经济成本的更广泛背景下,我们计算了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间整个人口的超额死亡人数,并将其划分为年龄亚组。此外,我们估计了因大流行而损失的劳动力成本。我们采用一般加性模型来建立每周死亡人数的反事实时间序列,以计算如果大流行没有发生的死亡人数。从实际死亡人数中减去反事实序列,我们就得到了超额死亡人数。在总人口中,超额死亡人数与卫生部报告的COVID-19受害者在统计上没有差异。然而,我们发现35岁至59岁年龄组的超额死亡人数远高于报告的COVID-19死亡人数。我们估计,劳动力流失的成本约为捷克2021年GDP的0.03%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Covid-19 pandemic economic costs in terms of labour force loss
Within a broader context of economic costs of the recent pandemic we calculate the excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic over the whole population and split them into age subgroups. Further, we estimate the cost of the labor force lost due to the pandemic. We employ a general additive model to set up a counterfactual time series of weekly deaths to count the number of deaths if the pandemic did not occur. Subtracting counterfactual series from the actual number of fatalities provides us with the excess deaths. The amount of excess deaths in the whole population is not statistically different from the COVID-19 victims reported by the Ministry of Health. However, we find excess deaths that are substantially higher than the reported COVID-19 causalities in the age group from 35 to 59 years. We estimated the costs of the lost labor force to be approximately 0.03% of the Czech 2021 GDP.
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