Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS NDVI 250m in the City of Tshwane, South Africa

The unprecedented influx of people into urban areas has led to the horizontal and vertical growth of urban environments. One of the notable impacts of urbanisation is the encroachment of urban-like environments into non-urban areas. This is common in both developed and developing countries, and South Africa’s City of Tshwane, the administrative capital of the country, has been affected by urbanisation because of migration. One of the parameters or proxies used to quantify urban growth is vegetation cover. There is a consensus that with the increase in the population of urban dwellers, vegetation cover will decrease. To assess and monitor vegetation cover, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is commonly used. In this study, MODIS NDVI data with a 250m spatial resolution was used to assess the impact of urban growth on vegetation. A time series analysis of the MODIS NDVI with a spatial resolution of 250m was used to establish the patterns of vegetation cover. Trends in vegetation change were determined in newly developed residential areas, informal settlements, and various vegetated areas. Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall’s statisticwere used to analyse the spatial trends and variations in trends among different land cover classes. The slope of the trends differs significantly but there is a general decline in vegetation cover. The temporal profiles revealed the high and low NDVI values, respectively showing greening (high vegetation) and browning (low vegetation) trends from 2000 to 2016. It is concluded that urban growth has an impact on vegetation cover. However, this does not disturb the seasonal changes in vegetation where high NDVI values prevail in summer and low values in winter.