Five-year plan and agricultural productivity in China

PurposeChina's economy has transformed from a high-speed growth phase to a high-quality development phase. The agriculture sector has grown substantially since the economic reform in 1978. Considering the five-year plan (FYP) as a collection of policies, this study explores the relationship between the FYP and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP).Design/methodology/approachThis study uses 31 provincial-level panel data of the five FYPs from 1996 to 2020. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to compute Malmquist productivity indexes. The authors analyze the temporal and spatial changes and convergences of China's agricultural TFP, and investigate the impact of economic planning on China's agricultural TFP and its regional difference.FindingsThere is a slow but upward growth trend in China's agricultural TFP. The technical change has played a leading role in the growth of China's agricultural TFP. The agricultural TFP of all provinces has shown a “catch-up” effect and is developing toward their respective steady-state levels. The regional difference in productivity growth among the eastern, central and western regions exists. Test results show that the FYP has a positive effect on the agricultural TFP, and the effect has obvious regional heterogeneity. The FYP also plays a positive role in the gross value of agricultural output, and the impact effect is greater than that on the improvement of agricultural productivity.Originality/valueThere are many forms of industrial policy in China, among which the FYP is the guiding document of industrial policy, which makes a systematic plan for industrial development in the subsequent five years. The development objectives, guidelines and overall deployment for agriculture in the FYP not only describe the general context of China's agricultural development but also show the key ideas of agricultural development. Therefore, this study explores its impact on agricultural quality development from the perspective of FYP. The results provide evidence for examining the governance performance of the government and the objective evaluation and restraint of the FYP. As agriculture moves toward the stage of high-quality development, the Chinese government should strengthen the critical guiding role of the FYP and pay attention to quality indicators such as technical progress, efficiency improvement and regional coordination in the formulation of the FYP.