东盟五国如何抵御贸易冲击?区域和全球冲击的比较

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1177/0974910120906239

M. Raghavan, E. Devadason

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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文研究了在美中贸易战的影响下，东盟地区对外部冲击的抵御能力。利用结构VAR（SVAR）框架，研究并比较了区域（东盟）和全球（美国、中国）冲击对ASEAN-5的影响。为了确定经济冲击和溢出对东盟5国的传播，所考虑的经济体之间不断变化的贸易联系被用来解释1978Q1至2018Q2期间的时间变化。对贸易联系和产出乘数效应的分析得出了三个主要结果。首先，在亚洲金融危机后的一段时间里，东盟五国对美国和中国冲击的反应比地区冲击更为明显。第二，中国冲击对东盟的累积影响越来越大，这与东盟与中国之间日益增长的贸易联系和贸易强度是一致的。第三，美国和中国是贸易联系较弱的东盟伙伴的主要增长动力。总之，研究结果表明，全球冲击对该地区很重要，该地区对全球冲击的经济韧性取决于除直接贸易联系之外的间接影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks

This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.