为冲突武装，为和平武装？小武器进口如何影响州内冲突风险

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Conflict Management and Peace Science Pub Date : 2021-11-16 DOI:10.1177/07388942211045940

Andreas Mehltretter

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引用次数: 1

摘要

尽管小武器进口是一种普遍的冲突技术，但迄今为止尚未研究小武器进口对州内冲突爆发风险的影响。这篇文章认为，小武器不仅增强了一般军事能力，而且有助于国家预防冲突所必需的能力。这两种机制被纳入权力转移的正式模型中。推导出的假设在1993-2014年期间在146个国家进行了测试。使用分裂种群和惩罚固定效应logit模型作为罕见事件数据的创新估计方法，发现小武器进口没有甚至没有降低风险的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

Although a prevalent technology of conflict, the impact of small arms imports on the risk of intrastate conflict outbreak has not been examined so far. This article argues that small arms not only enhance general military capabilities, but also contribute to state capacities necessary for conflict prevention. These two mechanisms are incorporated in a formal model of power shifts. The derived hypotheses are tested on 146 countries for the period 1993–2014. Using split-population and penalized fixed-effects logit models as innovative estimation methods for rare-events data, small arms imports are found to have no or even a risk-reducing impact.

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来源期刊

Conflict Management and Peace Science INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year from 2009. It contains scientific papers on topics such as: - international conflict; - arms races; - the effect of international trade on political interactions; - foreign policy decision making; - international mediation; - and game theoretic approaches to conflict and cooperation. Affiliated with the Peace Science Society (International), Conflict Management and Peace Science features original and review articles focused on news and events related to the scientific study of conflict and peace. Members of the Peace Science Society (International) receive an annual subscription to Conflict Management and Peace Science as a benefit of membership.