自然灾害、社会政策和选举表现：来自2017年墨西哥城地震的证据

IF 0.7 3区社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES

Latin American Research Review Pub Date : 2023-04-18 DOI:10.1017/lar.2023.3

Cesar B. Martinez-Alvarez, J. M. Rodríguez-Valadez

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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要自然灾害等大型突发事件会影响选举吗？本文研究了2017年墨西哥城发生的19-S地震的政治层面，也就是2018年大选前几个月。使用细粒度的地理空间数据，结果显示，与上一次选举相比，2018年，来自市级现任民主革命党（PRD）的候选人在更容易受到地震破坏的选区的选票份额略有增加（无论是从距离还是人均衡量），考虑附近的地震剖面和社会经济特征。文章表明，灾难恢复政策的实施部分解释了这种关系。此外，选民对未来降低风险战略的反应与对重建信贷的反应一样强烈。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Natural Hazards, Social Policy, and Electoral Performance: Evidence from the 2017 Earthquake in Mexico City

Abstract Do large-scale and unexpected events, such as natural disasters, affect elections? This article studies the political dimension of the 19-S earthquake that hit Mexico City in 2017, a few months before the 2018 elections. Using fine-grained geospatial data, the results show that candidates from the city-level incumbent Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) had a small increase in vote share in 2018 compared to the previous election in precincts more exposed to damaged caused by the earthquake (in terms of both distance-based and per capita measures), accounting for the seismic profile and socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhood. The article shows that the implementation of disaster-recovery policy explains part of this relationship. Moreover, voters were as electorally responsive to a future risk reduction strategy as to a reconstruction credit.

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来源期刊

Latin American Research Review AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

12.50%

发文量

137

审稿时长

9 weeks

期刊介绍： The Latin American Research Review is the premier interdisciplinary journal that publishes original research and surveys of current research on Latin America and the Caribbean. Interdisciplinary offerings reflect ahead-of-the-curve research, as well as new directions of knowledge creation in areas such as cultural studies, Latino issues and transnationalism, all of which increasingly intersect with Latin America in ways that are intellectually challenging and illuminating.