美中贸易战对撒哈拉以南非洲的影响:积极的国内政策发挥了作用

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Fatuma Abdallah Nantembelele , Mustafa K. Yilmaz , Ali Ari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究模拟了中美贸易政策变化对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)贸易量和经济繁荣的影响。为此,我们采用了一个基于全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,该模型具有不同的场景,重点关注关税的增加。研究结果表明,关税上调对中美两国贸易额和经济增长产生负面影响,同时导致贸易转移和贸易创造。这为改善出口和经济增长提供了宝贵的机会,特别是对埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和尼日利亚而言。在行业层面上,研究结果表明,农业、食品、石油和天然气行业在出口量方面受到积极影响,而矿产、金属和服务行业则受到贸易战的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference

This study simulates the impact of the change in trade policy between the US and China on the trade volume and economic prosperity of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To do that, we employ a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) with different scenarios focusing on increases in tariffs. The results show that the tariff increases negatively affect the US and China in terms of trade volume and economic growth, while it leads to trade diversion and creation for the SSA. This offers valuable opportunities in improving exports and economic growth, particularly for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. On the sectorial level, the findings imply that agriculture, food, and oil and gas sectors are positively affected in terms of export volume, while mineral, metal and service sectors are negatively impacted by the trade war.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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