Considering counterfactual scenarios in conservation planning: Perspectives from a biodiverse mining area in the Atlantic Forest

Mining and associated infrastructure have been driving land use changes, affecting important biodiversity values and ecosystems services. To balance these impacts, some mining companies implement biodiversity offsets and conservation actions. By simulating a counterfactual land use scenario, this study quantifies the cumulative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services resulting from land use and land cover change in a biodiverse region in the Atlantic Forest after implementation of a new mine and its offsets. Our results show that conservation actions at the project scale should be planned considering the regional context, which may influence impacts on areas with high conservation priority as well as the ecosystem services budget. The comparison among scenarios reveals that raw materials and carbon storage are the least affected budgets, while fresh water, pollination, and local climate and air quality regulation are most impacted. Areas with high conservation priority could be benefited with increased forest cover in future, whilst the demand for some ecosystem services can be affected. Counterfactual baselines could support conservation targets by prioritizing protection and restoration measures – especially offset planning – for halting pressures on biodiversity and balancing ecosystem services supply and demand.