能源转型金属：净零排放的瓶颈？

IF 3.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvad039

L. Boer, Andrea Pescatori, M. Stuermer

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引用次数: 5

摘要

能源转型需要大量的金属，包括铜、镍、钴和锂。这些金属是瓶颈吗?我们确定了特定金属的需求冲击，估计了供应弹性，并在结构情景分析中研究了转型对价格的影响。这四种金属的价格将达到之前的历史峰值，但在净零排放情景下，这将是一段前所未有的、持续的时期，可能会使能源转型脱轨。2021年至2040年期间，它们的产值将增长近四倍，达到11万亿美元。仅这四种金属市场对全球经济的重要性就可能与石油市场相当。

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Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.

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来源期刊

Journal of the European Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

2.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of the European Economic Association replaces the European Economic Review as the official journal of the association. JEEA publishes articles of the highest scientific quality and is an outlet for theoretical and empirical work with global relevance. The journal is committed to promoting the ambitions of the EEA: the development and application of economics as a science, as well as the communication and exchange between teachers, researchers and students in economics.