Recurrence interval of strong earthquakes in the se Altai, Russia revealed by tree-ring analysis and radiocarbon dating

Abstract This paper presents the results of paleoseismogeological investigations including tree-ring analysis and radiocarbon dating in pleistoseist zone of the 2003 Chuya earthquake, SE Altai, Russia. Twenty-five radiocarbon dates of previously unknown evidences of prehistoric earthquakes along the fault bounders of the Chagan-Uzun massif, North Chuya and South Chuya ranges are reported. Perspectives of applying dendroseismological approach within the high mountainous seismically active southeastern part of Russian Altai are demonstrated. In addition to estimating the germination ages of trees growing on the bare surfaces of seismically triggered landslides, analysis of wood penetrating injuries in the individual tree ring series was applied for dating paleorock-falls. Analysis of distribution patterns of tree-ring anomalies and injured trees suggests a criterion of recognizing seismic origin of past rock-falls. Dendrochronologically obtained dates of abrupt intensifications of rock-falls can be considered as supposed dates of past earthquakes, which should be verified by alternative proxy data. Obtained results argue for the high regional seismicity in the second half of the Holocene. Strong earthquakes occurred here AD 1532, and 600–700, 1300–1500, 2400–2700, 3400–3700, 3800–4200 cal BP. This data clarifies the chronology of seismic events within the SE Altai. The specified recurrence interval of strong earthquakes is about 400 years during the last 4000 years.