中欧和东欧国家的稳定和经济自由:定量分析

A. Karateev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

探索国家和政治制度的稳定性是全世界科学家和政治家都感兴趣的问题。这一领域中最重要的问题之一是稳定与自由之间的关系问题。本文以中东欧国家为例,探讨了经济自由与稳定的关系。该研究通过经济自由指数(IEF)对经济自由进行定量分析和操作;此外,稳定性研究通过脆弱国家指数(FSI)和政治稳定和没有暴力/恐怖主义指数(PSI)。分析表明,经济自由与稳定之间存在很强的相关性。根据笔者得到的线性回归模型,经济自由度对稳定性有很强的影响。模型表明,IEF的大部分成分增加了稳定性,而一些成分降低了稳定性。这意味着同样的因素会以不同的方式影响经济自由和稳定。特别是,税收对稳定有非常积极的影响。同时,很明显,税收降低了经济自由。这一事实使我们能够解决政治家和科学家之间存在的矛盾,他们对经济自由对稳定的影响有不同的评估。可以说,虽然经济自由通常对稳定有很强的积极影响,但它也可能有消极影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stability and economic freedom in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Quantitative analysis
Exploring the stability of states and political systems is of interest to scientists and politicians all around the world. One of the most important questions in this field is the question of the relationship between stability and freedom. This paper considers the relationship between economic freedom and stability with regards to the example of countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study uses quantitative analysis and the operationalisation of economic freedom through the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF); furthermore, stability is studied through the Fragile States Index (FSI), and the Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Index (PSI). The analysis reveals a strong correlation between economic freedom and stability. According to linear regression models obtained by the author, economic freedom has a strong impact on stability. Models show that most of the components of IEF increase stability, whilst some components decrease it. This means that the same factors affect economic freedom and stability in different ways. In particular, taxes have a very positive effect on stability. At the same it is obvious that taxes reduce economic freedom. This fact allows us to resolve the existing contradictions among politicians and scientists, who differently assess the impact of economic freedom on stability. It may be stated that whilst economic freedom has in general a strong positive effect on stability, it can also have a negative effect.
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