The Impact of Value-Added Trade on Global Economic Comovement

Abstract Using a value-added accounting framework, we conducted empirical research to analyze product value-added in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas, so as to decode “the trade-comovement puzzle.” As our study shows, value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for the economic comovement, but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries with the former having a pivotal role. Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary. When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup, the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on the economic comovement. China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted value-added linkages with hub countries; its utilization of the correlative effect of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies. At the same time, China is taking advantage of being the core node in the Belt and Road trade network and is continuing to boost the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor and building a global economic environment that features win-win collaboration and co-development.