经济结构变化与中国未来能源需求趋势

IF 0.9 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

中国社会科学 Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI:10.1080/02529203.2021.1971404

Zheng Xinye, Wu Shimei, Lin Fanghua

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引用次数: 4

摘要

摘要科学评估中国未来能源需求的趋势是非常重要的。利用1995-2015年的省级面板数据，从能源密集型产业在国民经济中所占比例的变化角度，研究了经济总量、能源密集型行业发展与能源需求之间的关系。我们发现，经济总量通过能源密集型产业影响能源需求，经济结构的变化是能源需求变化的关键因素。这意味着，中国未来的能源需求将远低于未考虑这一因素的预测。全面推进绿色技术发展，加强对能源密集型产业的监管，将是实现中国能源消费总量控制目标的关键选择之一。

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Changes in the Economic Structure and Trends in China’s Future Energy Demands

Abstract The scientific evaluation of trends in China’s future energy demands is highly important. Using provincial-level panel data from 1995 to 2015, we studied the relationships between the economic aggregate, the development of energy-intensive industries and energy demand from the perspective of changes in the proportion of energy-intensive industries in the national economy. We find that economic aggregate affects energy demand through energy-intensive industries and that changes in the economic structure are the key factor for change in energy demand. This means that China’s future energy demand will be much lower than that contained in forecasts that did not consider this factor. Comprehensively promoting green-tech development and strengthening the regulation of energy-extensive industries will be one of the key options for realizing China’s objective of controlling total energy consumption.

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来源期刊

中国社会科学 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

5101

期刊介绍： Social Sciences in China Press (SSCP) was established in 1979, directly under the administration of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Currently, SSCP publishes seven journals, one academic newspaper and an English epaper .