Reframing the US-Pakistan Strategic Renaissance

In recent years, US-Pakistan relations seemed to have been one of the many casualties of the Global War on Terror. The two countries had developed an extremely close strategic relationship following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, with the United States going so far as to make Pakistan a major non-NATO ally in return for its counterterrorism (CT) support and assistance with stabilization efforts in Afghanistan. But Pakistani double-dealing— which included continuing aid to the Taliban and associated militant groups in Afghanistan as well as extensive use of terrorists to promote Pakistani interests in South Asia—badly damaged the relationship. The United States became convinced that it had been duped into supporting a country that, for decades, had been working against it. Bitter public statements and substantial cuts in US aid ensued during the Trump administration, followed by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan after President Biden took office in 2021. By this point, US-Pakistan relations were at an all-time low, and appeared unlikely to recover in the foreseeable future. Yet today, the US-Pakistan strategic relationship is enjoying something of a renaissance. Its centerpiece is a USD $450 million sustainment package for Pakistani F-16 fighter planes, announced in September 2022. Recent months have also seen the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff visit Washington for the first time in over three years, and the United States and Pakistan discussing a wide range of potential collaboration including a return to substantial counterterrorism cooperation.