The natural capital of the Colombian Orinoco River basin. intact ecosystems with high rates of anthropogenic change

ABSTRACT The Orinoco basin is one of the most important hydrologic systems in South America. The Colombian Orinoco basin occupies an area of approx. thirty-four million hectares, located in the country's east. The literature about the economic valuation of ecosystem services (ES) and the spatial information on natural resources in the Colombian Orinoco basin was revised through various information sources to document the earliest approximation to the state, spatial distribution, and economic value of the natural capital at the scale of biomes, specific ecosystems, and political-administrative units. Our assessment estimated a natural capital loss of 200 billion Int.$2020/year (74% of Colombian GDP in 2020) and a remnant natural capital worth 296 billion Int.$2020/year (more than 100% of Colombia's GDP in 2020) for twelve ecosystem services. This research proves that a potential expansion in livestock production systems will generate an additional loss of natural capital of approximately 282 billion Int.$2020/year. Additionally, we include an analysis based on the GLOBIO4 initiative models, identifying future natural capital losses between 4.8 and 33 billion Int.$2020/year. Lastly, the policy challenges and gaps in research and management concerning this remaining natural capital in the Colombian Orinoco basin are pointed out.