Forcing uncertainty and salinity response to dredging in a tidal freshwater river

ABSTRACT This study evaluates the salinity response to dredging under different forcing regimes for a 75-kilometer segment of the flood-prone Vermilion River located in coastal Louisiana, USA. The Vermilion is a tidal freshwater river affected by baseflow regulation, rapid urbanization, and hydromodification. This river also serves as major freshwater resource for the region. An efficient one-dimensional model calibrated previously for stage and water temperature is used to analyse the salinity impacts due to a large-scale flood control dredging. The analysis is based on 200 alternative scenarios based on combinations of uncertain key forcing variables for a critical 13-day intrusion period. The analysis reveals a nonlinear effect on mean salinities and position of the brackish water limit as a function of uncertain forcing variables. Dredging also increases the variability of salinity encroachment effects due to uncertainty in future forcing conditions (e.g. relative sea level rise, baseflow diversion volumes, and salinities at the river mouth). The robust analysis presented here provides a foundation for future model-based assessments of under-studied tidal freshwater rivers and provides key insights for coastal management and sustainability efforts in general.