PKK恐怖主义与土耳其反恐的向量自回归干预分析

Q1 Social Sciences

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism Pub Date : 2022-09-04 DOI:10.1080/18335330.2022.2117568

Ali Ozdogan, Zeliha Ozdogan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本研究采用向量自回归干预分析方法，分析了1999-2007年间土耳其镇压和和解反恐政策对库尔德工人党温和派和极端主义成员的影响。通过利用土耳其打击库尔德工人党恐怖主义的CT数据，该研究发现，有证据表明，对极端分子的镇压和和解CT增加了他们对恐怖主义活动的参与，而对温和派的镇压减少了他们对恐怖活动的参与。该模型提供了经验证据，证明镇压和和解CT可以增加或减少恐怖主义，这取决于目标人群对恐怖主义运动的团结程度，从而为当前的反恐知识库做出了贡献。

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A vector-autoregression-intervention analysis of PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counterterrorism

ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of Turkey’s repressive and conciliatory counterterrorism (CT) policies on moderate and extremist members of the terrorist group, Partiye Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK) in the period 1999–2007, using vector autoregression-intervention analysis. By utilising the data about Turkey’s CT against PKK terrorism, the study finds evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT against extremists increases their involvement in terrorist activity, while repression against moderates decreases their involvement in terrorist activity. The model contributes to the current knowledge base of counterterrorism by providing empirical evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT can increase or decrease terrorism, depending on the target population’s degree of solidarity with a terrorist movement.

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来源期刊

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism Social Sciences-Law

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism (JPICT) is an international peer reviewed scholarly journal that acts as a forum for those around the world undertaking high quality research and practice in the areas of: Policing studies, Intelligence studies, Terrorism and counter terrorism studies; Cyber-policing, intelligence and terrorism. The Journal offers national, regional and international perspectives on current areas of scholarly and applied debate within these fields, while addressing the practical and theoretical issues and considerations that surround them. It aims to balance the discussion of practical realities with debates and research on relevant and significant theoretical issues. The Journal has the following major aims: To publish cutting-edge and contemporary research articles, reports and reviews on relevant topics; To publish articles that explore the interface between the areas of policing, intelligence and terrorism studies; To act as an international forum for exchange and discussion; To illustrate the nexus between theory and its practical applications and vice versa.