天气波动会影响当地经济增长吗？中华人民共和国各县的证据

IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI:10.1162/adev_a_00154

Chengzheng Li, Jiajia Cong, Haiying Gu

{"title":"天气波动会影响当地经济增长吗？中华人民共和国各县的证据","authors":"Chengzheng Li, Jiajia Cong, Haiying Gu","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00154","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses historical fluctuations of weather variables within counties in the People's Republic of China to identify their effects on economic growth from 1996 to 2012. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures significantly reduce the growth rate of county-level gross domestic product per capita: an increase in the annual average temperature of 1°C lowers the growth rate by 1.05%–1.25%. The effect of higher temperatures is nonlinear. Second, fluctuations in temperature and precipitation not only have a level effect, they also have a substantial cumulative effect. Third, weather fluctuations have wide-ranging effects. Beyond their substantial effects on the growth rate of agricultural output, they also affect nonagriculture sectors, labor productivity, and investment. Our findings provide new evidence for the impact of weather changes on economic development and have major implications for adaptation policies.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Could Weather Fluctuations Affect Local Economic Growth? Evidence from Counties in the People's Republic of China\",\"authors\":\"Chengzheng Li, Jiajia Cong, Haiying Gu\",\"doi\":\"10.1162/adev_a_00154\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper uses historical fluctuations of weather variables within counties in the People's Republic of China to identify their effects on economic growth from 1996 to 2012. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures significantly reduce the growth rate of county-level gross domestic product per capita: an increase in the annual average temperature of 1°C lowers the growth rate by 1.05%–1.25%. The effect of higher temperatures is nonlinear. Second, fluctuations in temperature and precipitation not only have a level effect, they also have a substantial cumulative effect. Third, weather fluctuations have wide-ranging effects. Beyond their substantial effects on the growth rate of agricultural output, they also affect nonagriculture sectors, labor productivity, and investment. Our findings provide new evidence for the impact of weather changes on economic development and have major implications for adaptation policies.\",\"PeriodicalId\":39852,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Asian Development Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Asian Development Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00154\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asian Development Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00154","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

摘要

本文利用中华人民共和国县域内天气变量的历史波动来确定其对1996-2012年经济增长的影响。我们发现了三个主要结果。首先，气温升高会显著降低县级人均国内生产总值的增长率：年平均气温升高1°C会使增长率降低1.05%-1.25%。气温升高的影响是非线性的。其次，气温和降水的波动不仅具有水平效应，而且具有实质性的累积效应。第三，天气波动影响广泛。除了对农业产出增长率的实质性影响外，它们还影响非农业部门、劳动生产率和投资。我们的研究结果为气候变化对经济发展的影响提供了新的证据，并对适应政策产生了重大影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Could Weather Fluctuations Affect Local Economic Growth? Evidence from Counties in the People's Republic of China

This paper uses historical fluctuations of weather variables within counties in the People's Republic of China to identify their effects on economic growth from 1996 to 2012. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures significantly reduce the growth rate of county-level gross domestic product per capita: an increase in the annual average temperature of 1°C lowers the growth rate by 1.05%–1.25%. The effect of higher temperatures is nonlinear. Second, fluctuations in temperature and precipitation not only have a level effect, they also have a substantial cumulative effect. Third, weather fluctuations have wide-ranging effects. Beyond their substantial effects on the growth rate of agricultural output, they also affect nonagriculture sectors, labor productivity, and investment. Our findings provide new evidence for the impact of weather changes on economic development and have major implications for adaptation policies.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Asian Development Review Social Sciences-Development

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

53 weeks

期刊介绍： The Asian Development Review is a professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research carried out by staff and resource persons of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Review stresses policy and operational relevance of development issues rather than the technical aspects of economics and other social sciences. Articles are refereed and intended for readership among economists and social scientists in government, private sector, academia, and international organizations.