限制资本流动和国际金融机构的支持

IF 0.4 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Chokri Zehri
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2008年金融危机后,国际金融机构改变了对资本账户自由化和资本流动管理好处的看法。国际货币基金组织(IMF)开始公开表示支持传统上被称为“资本管制”的做法。不幸的是,限制资本流动的影响尚未确定,如果资本管制无限期地存在,就会造成扭曲。本研究使用了2000年至2016年间25个新兴经济体资本控制的季度数据。通过对方差分解和脉冲响应函数分析的面板向量自回归(PVAR)的检验,该研究进一步证明了限制对资本流动的一些国内影响。结果表明,2008年金融危机后,限制措施更加有效,并允许更多的货币政策自主权和汇率稳定。出乎意料的是,这些发现并没有显示出对国际储备积累的任何重大影响。该研究强调,必须遵循国际金融组织的指导方针,妥善管理外部资本流动,更好地协调宏观经济政策,以期找到最佳的政策组合。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Restrictions on Capital Flows and International Financial Institutions’ Support
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, international financial institutions have changed their views on the benefits of capital account liberalization and the management of capital flows. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) began to publicly express support for what have traditionally been referred to as “capital controls.” The impacts of restrictions on capital flows have, unfortunately, still not been established, and capital controls create distortions if they remain in place indefinitely. The present study uses quarterly data on capital controls in 25 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2016. Through an examination of a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) with variance decomposition and impulse-response functions analysis, the study provides further evidence of some domestic effects of restrictions on capital flows. The results show that restrictions were more effective following the 2008 financial crisis and allowed for more monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate stability. Unexpectedly, the findings do not show any significant impact on international reserves accumulation. The study highlights the necessity of following the international financial organizations’ guidelines to well manage external capital flows and to better coordinate macroeconomic policies in the hope of finding an optimal policy mix.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
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