Extreme Measures: A National Descriptive Analysis of Closure and Restructuring of Traditional Public, Charter, and Private Schools

We describe the levels, trends, and patterns of school closure and restructuring in the United States from 1991 to 2019 across all sectors using a near census of K-12 schools. Focusing on the years with the best available data, 2014-2018, we find that the annual closure rate of charter, private, and traditional public schools (TPS) were 5.1, 2.9, and 0.9 percent respectively. The annual restructuring rates are 2.0 percent for charter schools and 0.6 percent for TPS. Regression analysis shows that these differences in closure and restructuring rates by sector drop slightly after controlling for student and school characteristics. The strongest predictor of increased closures is low student enrollment, especially in private schools. In charter and traditional public schools, achievement measures predict closure and restructuring nearly as strongly as enrollment. While racial and income composition are weaker predictors of closure/restructuring, that they predict at all, after controlling for many other factors, raises some equity concerns. We also discuss ways in which the forces behind closure/restructuring may be difficult to uncover with this type of quantitative analysis.