奥克兰商业地产市场奇特的吸引力

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Moshe Szweizer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的-本研究的目的是提供一个基于混沌理论的框架,该框架可用于商业地产市场动态建模。设计/方法论/方法-本文分为两部分。首先,采用严格的数学推理,推导出描述一组反馈公式的吸引子。第二部分,利用吸引人定义对奥克兰商业写字楼市场进行建模。该模型通过一组七个场景来展示,允许分析各种外部强加条件下的市场行为。研究结果-该模型的一般行为与在奥克兰观察到的商业房地产市场行为一致。该模型提供了与市场转折点相关的信息,并允许对一些复杂的市场动态进行解释。其中包括剖析市场峰值及其对流动性供过于求的反应。实际意义-该模型可用于扩展我们对各种外生强加条件下市场表现的理解,从而允许以更精细的方式规划市场干预。原创性/价值-本文是原创的,在混沌理论应用于房地产市场建模的方式,并允许扩大对市场行为的理解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market
Purpose - The purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions. Findings - The general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply. Practical implications - The model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner. Originality/value - The paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Fully refereed papers on practice and methodology in the UK, continental Western Europe, emerging markets of Eastern Europe, China, Australasia, Africa and the USA, in the following areas: ■Academic papers on the latest research, thinking and developments ■Law reports assessing new legislation ■Market data for a comprehensive review of current research ■Practice papers - a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences
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