Impacts of the recent USA and China trade dispute on China’s aquatic products

ABSTRACT This paper uses the Multivariable Grey Model and the Counterfactual Reasoning Method to evaluate the impact of the recent trade dispute between the USA and China from the perspective of its impact on the international trade of China’s aquatic products. Regarding imports the recent trade dispute did not have a negative impact, due to substitution possibilities with other countries. China’s aquatic products export is heavily dependent on the market in the USA. Nevertheless, the aggravation of the recent trade dispute has not caused significant effects on China’s aquatic product exports. Compared with the potential trade loss in terms of exports to China suffered by aquatic product producers and operators in the USA, the economic interests of China’s aquatic products producers and operators in terms of exports have not been affected significantly overall. In comparison, the potential trade losses of aquatic product producers and operators in the USA are relatively greater.