1963 - 2015年阿尔及利亚固定电话和移动电话对经济增长的影响

Leila Khaouani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

通信被认为是任何经济或社会发展政策的必然结果,在各种通信类型中,电信是任何社会不可替代的基础设施之一。对这些服务的需求正在增加,从一个简单的电话线到建立一个信息传输网络,主导了不同的基材转换,电缆,光纤,卫星等。阿尔及利亚的电信部门一直由国家垄断,由于对电话线的需求日益增加,电信部门遭受了很大的损失。但由于该行业的新法律,情况发生了变化,该法律在38年后向私人投资者敞开了大门;国家向私营部门发放了许可证,导致这一领域的供应增加。本文旨在研究1963年至2015年阿尔及利亚固定电话和移动电话的GDP与电信之间的因果关系。实证分析通过使用philips -perron (PP)检验、Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型短期(VECM)逐步检验时间序列特征,最后使用格兰杰因果检验。结果表明,在VECM检验和格兰杰因果检验中,该系数具有统计学显著性,表明变量之间存在单向因果关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Fixed and Mobile Telephones on Economic Growth in Algeria during the Period from 1963 to 2015
Communication is considered as an inevitable consequence of any development policy, whether economic or social, and among the various types of communication, telecommunication representing one of the irreplaceable infrastructure for any society. The demand on these services is increasing, from a simple telephone line to the establishment an information transmission network that dominates the different substrates of conversion, cable, fiber optic, satellite, etc. The telecommunications sector at Algeria has been monopolized by the state and has suffered greatly in response to the growing demand for telephone lines. But things have changed thanks to the new law of the sector, which opened the doors to private investors after thirty eight years; the State has licensed the private sector, and led to increased supply in this area. This article aims to study the causal relationship between GDP and telecommunications across the Algerian fixed and mobile telephones from 1963 to 2015. The empirical analysis moves by steps to test chronological series characteristics by using the Phillips-perron (PP) tests, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Vector Error Correction Model short-term (VECM), ending with the Granger causality test. The results showed that the coefficient is statistically significant for the VECM test, and the Granger causality test that has showed a unidirectional causal relationship between variables.
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