印度公共债务与经济增长:新证据

IF 1.3 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Millennial Asia Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI:10.1177/09763996221136908

Bhanu Pratap Singh, Sujith Kumar

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引用次数: 2

摘要

该研究通过1980年至2019年的关键宏观经济指标，为公共债务对印度经济增长的影响提供了新的证据。在过去十年中，在新冠肺炎大流行之后，公共债务大幅上升，2021年4月达到国内生产总值的90%。因此，必须研究不同公共债务来源对印度经济的影响，以帮助决策者制定知情的债务管理政策。利用Johansen协整和完全修正的普通最小二乘法计算了长期均衡关系和协整系数。Toda和Yamamoto（1995）的Granger因果关系检验被用作长期均衡关系的短期诊断检验。该研究的主要发现表明，从长远来看，国内债务、全要素生产率和出口是经济发展的主要决定因素。相比之下，经济繁荣决定了短期内外债、偿债能力和全要素生产率的增长。建议政府有效地控制和引导公共债务，以产生有利的增长效果。

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Public Debt and Economic Growth in India: The New Evidence

The study gives new evidence on the effects of public debt on economic growth in India with key macroeconomic indicators from 1980 to 2019. In the past decade, and after the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a substantial rise in public debt, which reached 90% of the GDP in April 2021. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of different public debt sources on the Indian economy to help policymakers frame informed debt management policies. The long-run equilibrium relationship and cointegrating coefficients are calculated using Johansen cointegration and fully modified ordinary least square techniques. Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) Granger causality test is used as a short-run diagnostic test for the long-run equilibrium relationship. The study’s major findings suggest that domestic debt, total factor productivity (TFP) and exports are the major determinants of economic development in the long run. In contrast, economic prosperity determines the growth of external debt, debt service payments and TFP in the short run. It is recommended that the government should control and channel public debt productively for favourable growth effects.

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来源期刊

Millennial Asia AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Millennial Asia: An International Journal of Asian Studies is a multidisciplinary, refereed biannual journal of the Association of Asia Scholars (AAS)–an association of the alumni of the Asian Scholarship Foundation (ASF). It aims to encourage multifaceted, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research on Asia, in order to understand its fast changing context as a growth pole of global economy. By providing a forum for Asian scholars situated globally, it promotes dialogue between the global academic community, civil society and policy makers on Asian issues. The journal examines Asia on a regional and comparative basis, emphasizing patterns and tendencies that go beyond national borders and are globally relevant. Modern and contemporary Asia has witnessed dynamic transformations in cultures, societies, economies and political institutions, among others. It confronts issues of collective identity formation, ecological crisis, rapid economic change and resurgence of religion and communal identifies while embracing globalization. An analysis of past experiences can help produce a deeper understanding of contemporary change. In particular, the journal is interested in locating contemporary changes within a historical perspective, through the use of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches. This way, it hopes to promote comparative studies involving Asia’s various regions. The journal brings out both thematic and general issues and the thrust areas are: Asian integration, Asian economies, sociology, culture, politics, governance, security, development issues, arts and literature and any other such issue as the editorial board may deem fit. The core fields include development encompassing agriculture, industry, regional trade, social sectors like health and education and development policy across the region and in specific countries in a comparative perspective.