烟草走私的严重性。从汇总数据预测双边非法卷烟流量

IF 0.2 Q4 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
J. Damijan, Črt Kosevc
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国际烟草走私仍然是各国政府、烟草制造商和卫生专家关注的一个重要问题。虽然经常与其他形式的非法活动有关,但它也直接影响到政府税收和卫生政策。由于缺乏关于非法烟草双边流动的可靠数据,人们对促成非法烟草贸易和自鸣得意路线存在的因素的了解受到了严重阻碍。因此,重新构建贩运路线和估计跨境非法流动的规模是进一步了解这些犯罪并采取打击行动的关键步骤。这项研究首次使用grav ity估计技术将有数据可查的非法现金流入总量分解为其双边成分。我们的方法是一种简单有效的方法,可以作为其他查明国际贩运流动的方法的补充,例如空的丢弃包装数据或网络分析,以帮助打击非法烟草流动。政策制定者、海关官员以及执法部门可以将所提供的冰毒作为打击非法贸易的额外工具。关键词:双边非法香烟贸易,引力模型,预测估计
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THE GRAVITY OF TOBACCO SMUGGLING. PREDICTING BILATERAL ILLICIT CIGARETTE FLOWS FROM AGGREGATE DATA
nternational tobacco smuggling remains an important concern for governments, tobacco manufactur-ers and health experts alike. While often linked to other forms of illegal activities, it also directly impacts govern-ment tax and health policies. Knowledge of factors that contribute to illicit tobacco trade and the existence of smug-gling routes is strongly hampered by the lack of reliable data on bilateral flows of illicit tobacco. Therefore, recon-structing the trafficking routes and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps for gaining bet-ter understanding of these crimes and enforcing actions aimed at countering them. This study is the first to use grav-ity estimation techniques to decompose aggregate illicit cig-arette inflows for which data are available into their bilat-eral components. Our approach is a simple and effective method that can serve as a complement to other methods of pinpointing international trafficking flows such as empty discarded pack data or network analysis to help in the fight against illicit tobacco flows. Policymakers, customs officials as well as law enforcement can employ the presented meth-ods as an additional tool in the fight against illicit trade. Keywords: bilateral illicit cigarette trade, gravity model, predictive estimation
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来源期刊
TEORIJA IN PRAKSA
TEORIJA IN PRAKSA SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
25.00%
发文量
43
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