世界粮食价格的影响因素分析

Fang Min
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文利用1964 - 2013年的数据分析了世界粮食价格的影响因素。世界粮食价格、世界农业生产力、世界粮食生产、粮食消费、粮食库存、世界石油价格与美元汇率之间存在协整关系。世界农业生产率、世界粮食产量和美元汇率对世界粮食价格有显著的负向影响。世界粮食消费对世界粮食价格有显著的积极影响。世界粮食库存和世界原油价格对世界粮食价格的影响在统计上并不显著。世界粮食生产对世界粮食价格的弹性小于世界粮食消费的弹性。提高农业生产力,增加粮食产量是稳定世界粮食价格的关键措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the World Food Price
The paper analyzes influencing factors of the world food price by using the data from 1964 to 2013. There is cointegration relationship between the world food price, world agricultural productivity, world food production, food consumption, food inventory, world oil prices, and the exchange rate of dollar. The world agricultural productivity, world food production and the exchange rate of dollar have significantly negative effect on the world food price. The world food consumption has significantly positive impact on the word food price. The impact of the world food stock and the world crude oil price on world food prices is not statistically significant. The elasticity of world food production on the world food price is less than the elasticity of world food consumption. To improve the agricultural productivity, increase food production is the key measure to stabilize the world food prices.
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