外商直接投资、经济增长和就业:乌兹别克斯坦的var方法

Ergashev Rakhmatillo, Kobilov Anvar, Makhmudov Sukhrob
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文考察了2000年至2020年的年度数据序列,并通过VAR模型分析了外国直接投资、经济增长和就业之间的相互作用。增广Dickey-Fuller检验、Grangercutality检验和方差分解结果表明,外商直接投资对经济增长和就业有正影响,经济增长对外商直接投资和就业有正向影响。就业和经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。同时,外国直接投资也可以增加就业。同时,经济的高速增长可以促进乌兹别克斯坦的就业。更重要的是,本文为乌兹别克斯坦政府解决就业和经济增长等社会问题提供了建议。具体而言,目前,乌兹别克斯坦政府应鼓励外国投资者在乌兹别克斯坦投资,因为这有利于乌兹别克斯坦的就业和经济增长。当然,就业结构也应该优化,以保持经济高速增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT:VAR METHOD FOR UZBEKISTAN
This paper examines the annual data series from 2000 to 2020 and analyses the interaction among foreign direct investment, economic growth and employment through VAR model.Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Grangercausality test and variance decompositionresults show that the foreign directinvestment has a positive effect on economic growth and employment, and the economic growth has a positiveeffect on foreign direct investment and employment. There is a bi-directional causality between employment and economic growth.Meanwhile, theforeign direct investment can also result in an increase in the employment.Simultaneously, the high speed economicgrowth can improve the employment in Uzbekistan.More importantly, this paper providesrecommendationsfor Uzbekistan’s government to settle social problems such as employment and economic growth.Specifically, at present, Uzbekistan’s government should encourage foreign investors to invest in Uzbekistan because itcan be beneficial to employment and economic growth in Uzbekistan. Of course, the structure of employment alsoshould be optimized so as to keep high speed economic growth.
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