Modeling emission reduction benefits of the premium point-to-point bus service in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines – a scenario analysis

Abstract Road transport has been one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions. In the Philippines, one such measure is the introduction of a relatively new public transport mode called the “Premium Point-to-Point (P2P) Bus Service”, which features shorter travel time and lower emission intensity than conventional buses. In light of the significant deficiency in transport emission studies for Philippine cities, this paper presents a scenario-based method for quantifying the potential emission reduction benefits of the P2P bus in Metropolitan Manila. Based on a pro rata mode shift assumption, it is estimated that a 1% mode shift of passengers from existing motor modes to P2P buses would lead to 0.64% reduction of total emissions over selected travel routes in Metro Manila. The analytical method addresses the acute emission data scarcity in the Philippines, and provides early evidence on the aggregate environmental benefits of P2P buses. Extensive sensitivity tests are conducted to verify the simulation results and identify key determinants of emission reduction. The tests confirm the robustness of research findings and further uncover the great potential of increasing vehicle occupancy levels to mitigate vehicle emissions in Metro Manila. Policy implications for enhancing the environmental benefits of P2P buses are provided.