伊朗石化工业发展的系统动力学研究

Q2 Social Sciences

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI:10.1504/ijetp.2020.10029138

Z. Sazvar, Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi, Vahid Hajiebrahimi Farashah, S. Hosseini

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引用次数: 4

摘要

石油化工行业在实现油气高附加值方面发挥着重要作用，特别是对于化石燃料资源丰富的国家。本研究旨在利用系统动力学(SD)方法调查和模拟伊朗石化行业的发展动态。因此，在描述了影响国内投资动态的主要变量之间的相互关系之后，构建了一个量化模型来模拟不同情景下可能的结果。根据结果，到2025年，伊朗石化产品的产能将在7300万吨至7800万吨之间。此外，到2025年，产品价值将从2600万美元到3600万美元不等，这可能是一个有趣的研究领域，研究如何增加多样化石化产品的价值。最后，通过基于模型的情景分析和政策分析，提出了未来伊朗石化产业发展的优化政策。

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An investigation on the petrochemical industry development in Iran: a system dynamics approach

Petrochemical industry plays a significant role to achieve high value-added from oil and gas reserves, especially for countries with huge resources of fossil fuels. This study aims to investigate and model the development dynamics of the petrochemical industry in Iran using system dynamics (SD) methodology. Consequently, after describing the interrelationships among the main variables making the dynamics of domestic investment, a quantified model is built to simulate possible outcomes under different scenarios. According to the results, in 2025, the capacity of Iran's petrochemical productions will range from 73 to 78 million tons. Also, the value of products will range from 26 to 36 million dollars (USD) in 2025 that can be an interesting research area to investigate how the value of diversified petrochemical products can be increased. Finally, through a model-based scenario and policy analysis, some optimised policies are offered to enhance the petrochemical industry of Iran in the future.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJETP is a vehicle to provide a refereed and authoritative source of information in the field of energy technology and policy.