Changes in the potential distribution of valuable tree species based on their regeneration in the Neotropical seasonal dry forest of north-western Argentina

Summary The distribution of regeneration makes it possible to assess whether populations of tree species will maintain or change their distributions. For Neotropical dry forests there is little information on the potential changes in the distribution of tree species. Here, we evaluate the potential distributions of adults and seedlings of eight timber tree species of the Piedmont Forest of north-western Argentina by recording the presence of seedlings and adults in plots and modelling with MaxEnt software using three bioclimatic variables. The potential distribution areas of seedlings and adults and the percentage of overlap of seedlings with respect to adults were calculated. The potential distribution for adults was 694 457 ± 62 535 ha, and this figure was 656 564 ± 194 769 ha for seedlings. The potential distribution of seedlings of Calycophyllum multiflorum covered the smallest area (184 496 ha) and had the least overlap with the adults (18%). The difference in the overlap of the potential distribution areas between adults and seedlings suggests that there could be changes in the future distribution of this tree species and C. multiflorum should therefore be the focus of conservation strategies so that the species can follow its bioclimatic niche as the climate changes.