Modelling landscape management scenarios for equitable and sustainable futures in rural areas based on ecosystem services

ABSTRACT Scenario analysis is a useful technique to inform landscape planning of social-ecological systems by modelling future trends in ecosystem service supply and distribution. This is especially critical in floodplain agroecosystems of rural areas, which are at risk of losing riparian forest corridors due to increasing land use conversion for agricultural production and other ecosystem services due to rural abandonment. However, few studies investigating the effects of land management combine social and ecological modelling in scenario analyses. We estimated the supply of 16 ecosystem services under five alternative scenarios along two gradients: agricultural intensification of the floodplain and active ecological restoration of the riparian forest. We used redundancy analyses to detect ecosystem service bundles and interviews to identify societal gains and losses associated with each management scenario. Our results show how land management influences both the supply and distribution of ecosystem services. Scenarios promoting active ecological restoration supplied more services and benefited a larger range of societal sectors than scenarios focused on provisioning services. We also found two consistent bundles across scenarios, one related to less intensive food supply and another one related to outdoor activities. Interestingly, additional services were included in these bundles in the different scenarios, reflecting land management effects. Landscape scale management promoting both the conservation of ecosystem functioning and the sustainable use of provisioning services could supply a more balanced set of ecosystem services and benefit a larger number of societal sectors, contributing to more equitable and sustainable futures in rural areas. Graphical abstract