The provocative effects of democratization: assessing the relationship between the regime transition in Armenia and the escalation of the Karabakh conflict in 2018–2020

ABSTRACT The democratization and war theory suggests that countries become more conflict-prone while in a transition phase to democracy. Drawing on this theory, we examine the relationship between democratic transition in Armenia and the escalation of the Karabakh conflict in 2018–2020 – prior to the second Karabakh war. Obviously, various factors led to a dangerous escalation of the conflict, which eventually ended in all-out war. Yet, the article primarily aims to find out how Armenia’s recent democratization is related to this escalation. Our findings confirm the above theory: the main empirical argument is that the key elements linking democratic transition to conflict escalation have been the increasingly nationalist, populist behaviour of the new Armenian leadership and a perceived provocation caused by it on Azerbaijani side.