越南为何不平衡中国:越南安全优先事项与中越关系动态

IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Xinru Ma, David C. Kang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人们经常断言,越南正在与中国保持平衡,或者它会或应该这样做。但是,这一论断与越南的经验外交政策行为一致吗?事实上,越南代表了一个应该对中国特别谨慎的国家。可以肯定的是,它是一个兄弟般的共产主义兄弟,但它在经济上也与杠杆的利弊纠缠在一起,在地理上也与争端和彻底战争的历史紧密相连。本文认为,现有文献往往忽视了中越两国各自所掌握的丰富信息。多年的接触使越南和中国达成了一种可以解决争端并允许对中国风险采取温和军事反应的权宜之计。缺乏生存威胁进一步阻止了越南领导人向美国等地区外大国靠拢。潜在的对华平衡联盟的一个关键成员没有参与平衡行为,这让人们对美国的印太战略产生了质疑,这些战略的前提是各国将与美国“软结盟”或公开联合遏制中国。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Why Vietnam is not Balancing China: Vietnamese Security Priorities and the Dynamics in Sino-Vietnam Relations
It is often asserted that Vietnam is balancing against China, or that it will or should. But does this assertion align with the empirical foreign policy behaviors of Vietnam? Indeed, Vietnam represents a case of a country that should be particularly cautious about China. To be sure it is a fraternal communist brother, but it is also economically entangled—with the down- and upsides of leverage—and geographically close with a history of disputes and outright war. This article argues that existing literature often neglects the ample information that China and Vietnam have about each. Years of engagement have enabled Vietnam and China to reach a modus vivendi that can settle disputes and permit a muted military response to Chinese risks. The lack of existential threat further dissuades Vietnamese leaders from moving closer to extra-regional powers such as the United States. That a key member of the potential balancing coalition against China doesn't engage in balancing behavior, calls into question US Indo-Pacific strategies premised on the assumption that countries will “soft align” or openly join with the US to contain China.
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来源期刊
Journal of East Asian Studies
Journal of East Asian Studies SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
15.40%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: Experts from around the globe come together in this important peer-reviewed forum to present compelling social science research on the entire East Asia region. Topics include democratic governance, military security, political culture, economic cooperation, human rights, and environmental concerns. Thought-provoking book reviews enhance each issue. Want more information information on Journal of East Asian Studies? Sign up for our E-Alerts for regular updates.
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