A dynamic modeling for green business development in oil refining industry.

A carbon-based industry, such as oil refinery, needs to change its business model to achieve a green business. Considering the existing too much data, the modeling procedure is complex. Therefore, combination of the Fuzzy Delphi method and System Dynamics can be considered to cover this complexity. The starting point in this work is literature review of prior studies on the same common topic and green business, and it relies on a Fuzzy Delphi method to define main parameters. Based on the experts’ opinions, management support (0.78), cost (0.77), knowledge management (0.73), quality (0.64), staff training and empowering (0.63) customer satisfaction (0.63), environmental plan (0.61), production and process design (0.58) as well as suppliers (0.35) are the determining parameters in modeling green oil refining industry, respectively. Application of the results of the scenarios proposed based on importance illustrates the increasing share of the green business financial resource in considerable growth (39 %) of applying the green business model by 50% chance. Financial investing in the recycling plan leads up to a positive effect (43%) by almost equal chance of 50%-100%. Investing in staff training and empowerment leads to 37.5 % growth in exploiting the green business model with 50% chance. In conclusion, the oil refining organizations must pay attention to the above-mentioned part of their business to generate income and save environmental resources.