One if by invasion, two if by coercion: US military capacity to protect Taiwan from China

ABSTRACT A conflict between Taiwan and China might involve a full-scale invasion, or a more limited coercion campaign in which China seeks to cause Taiwan enough pain to cause it to change its behavior. If the United States chooses to intervene in such a conflict on Taiwan’s behalf, it can likely prevent China from invading Taiwan but might not be able to prevent Taiwan from being coerced. For this reason, the United States would be mistaken if it completely abandoned its policy of ambiguity about defending Taiwan. If the United States were to change its policy of ambiguity, it should do so only in the case of an invasion and remain ambiguous as to whether and how it would respond to a Chinese coercion campaign.