巴基斯坦工业部门的电力消耗:结构时间序列分析

Muhammad Zahir Faridi, Hina Ali, T. Qasim, Maheen Sadaf
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引用次数: 0

摘要

能源利用是推动工业部门经济对经济发展贡献的核心因素。的确,巴基斯坦是一个发展中国家,但最近才统一起来,电力资源严重短缺。因此,该行业有越来越多的增长量,导致经济进步,也优先考虑不可避免的挑战,以刺激工业增长。本研究的目的是调查巴基斯坦制造业中电力消耗、石油消耗和天然气使用之间的关系及其对经济增长的影响。结果表明,电力和天然气在短期和长期都有积极和显著的影响,而燃料消耗在短期内对经济有负面冲击,但从长期来看是积极的。故障修正模型(VECM)确保了巴基斯坦工业部门、石油消费和金融进步方面的双边关系。此外,研究结果揭示了测试变量之间的强相关性,并建议巴基斯坦政府必须制定一项强有力的政策,减少天然气和石油来发电,而不是依赖太阳能、水、气流和生物质能。因此,政府应该增加石油和天然气的库存和储存,以低廉的价格向工业部门提供供应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Electrical Consumption in the Industrial Sector of Pakistan: A Structural Time Series Analysis
The usage of energy is the central factor in promoting the contribution of the industrial sector economy to develop the economy. Indeed, Pakistan is a growing but recently united country with severe shortages of electricity resources. Therefore, the industry has a growing quantity of growth that leads to economic progress and also prioritizes inevitable challenges to stimulate industrial growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between electrical consumption, oil consumption, and gas usage in manufacturing and its impact on the economic growth in Pakistan. Results declared electricity and gas have a positive and significant impact in the short and long run while fuel consumption has a negative shock on the economy in the short run but is positive in long run. The fault correction model (VECM) ensures bilateral relations in the industrialized sector, oil consumption and financial progress in Pakistan. In addition, findings revealed a strong correlation between the variables tested and suggested that the Pakistani government must develop a strong policy to reduce gas and oil to produce electricity, instead of relying on solar energy, water, airstream and biomass sources. Therefore, the government should increase stokes and storage of oil and gas to provide the industrial sector at a cheap rate.
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